Causal Maps and the Evaluation of Decision Options

Authors: Montibelier G, Belton Valerie

Management Science Working Paper No. 10 (2005)

If the author is a current member of the Management Science staff then a copy of this paper, as a PDF file, can be obtained free of charge, by emailing the author. The email addresses of staff members can be found on the staff webpage. Please make sure to specify the research paper number when requesting the paper.

Abstract

Email abstract to a colleague

Causal maps are widely employed in problem-structuring interventions. They permit a rich representation of ideas, through the modelling of complex chains of argument as networks. The last stage of a problem-structuring intervention is often to identify and agree a set of potential strategic options. In some circumstances the preferred direction may emerge naturally from a process of negotiation; in others further, more-or-less formal, analysis to evaluate the options and to understand their impacts on the goals could be helpful. Such analysis may help to bring closure to the process. The main aim of this paper is to review systematically approaches for evaluating options following on from the use of a causal map for problem-structuring; some directly using the map structure, others working with concepts extracted from, or an external model derived from, the map. Following a proposed taxonomy, each approach is presented, and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed.